US MARKETS
If the entire financial system does not come down upon our heads and if we do not have another war, global growth is going nowhere in the year’s ahead. We had a mini-recovery, but it cost $1.8 trillion. We had a second recovery and that cost $1.5 trillion. We are entering a third of what is becoming yearly recoveries that will probably cost $1.3 trillion. In other worlds without these massive injections of money and credit we would probably be in a deflationary depression.
As a result of overspending and poor financial choices state, county and local governments continue layoffs, increase taxes, cut services and attempt to pay back unemployment loans from the Federal government by creating more debt, by floating additional bond issues. The people who run these governments just do not get it. They expect the next bull market is just around the corner and it isn’t. In 2014-2015 we can expect a housing inventory at banks of 9.8 million homes, all for sale. That guarantees no housing recovery for years to come.
The massive exodus of good paying jobs, one million a year, due to free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing and the loss of 450,000 manufactures will soon end, as a number of countries debate trade barriers. Such protectionism will initially cut back on world demand and the expansion of world debt. Austerity is already a by ward and means restrained spending as well. Governments will become more onerous with additional regulation and taxes, because they have no intention of really cutting spending. We have been waiting for more than three years for debt reduction and saving and it has not as yet really materialized on an ongoing basis. We ask, are American consumers capable of reducing debt and savings? If they do will personal consumption of GDP fall from 70% to lower levels? The answer is of course it will.
Thus far Americans cannot or will not in any meaningful way reduce spending and we see that mode continuing with an absence of savings. In this regard the Europeans are cutting back spending. China’s export growth has fallen to a 2-1/2 year low and Europe is China’s largest customer.
Over and over again we see other professionals still recommending US Treasuries yielding anywhere from zero to 1.87%, while official inflation is 3.8% and real inflation is 11.6%. These buyers of Treasuries have to have some fierce pressure put on them to purchase such investments; some are predicting a 2-1/2%, 30-year bond and a 1-1/2% 10-year note. Those gains are fine, but they nowhere offset the inflationary risk. For 25 years bonds have outperformed stocks, but few money managers talk about the outsized returns in gold and silver related assets. That isn’t acceptable and probably never will be. Professionals going the income route may be able to return 5% or even 7%, but that is not sufficient in having to deal with inflation and the volatility of the market. Producing gold and silver mines are selling at 15 times earnings when they could sell substantially higher based on P/E and gold and silver prices. You are looking at very easy 50% increases. Just recently we recommended Pretium (PVG) at $6.00 and it traded up over $16.00 this week.
