IF Issue: Saturday Dec 17, 2011

Excerpts and links from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman - The National Intel Report with John Stadtmiller 2011.12.13

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEOEEFTEABQ&feature=email

Bob Chapman with Kerry Lutz 12/14/11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHG06mj1ppI

Bob Chapman - Financial Survival - December 14, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnz9gDiTK5M&feature=email

Bob Chapman on Freedom Files with James Burns

http://freedomfiles.us/

http://youtu.be/waXBkss4xg0

FFw/JB Podcast (12/15/2011): Bob Chapman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waXBkss4xg0&feature=youtu.be

US MARKETS

           

The Fed’s third quarter audit data shows a total system debt of 355% and of GDP, in spite of so-called de-leveraging. It is down from the second quarter’s 375% of GDP, but up from 264% a dozen years ago. Financial sector borrowing fell almost 50% in the quarter but non-financial debt increased while financial debt fell – a push so to speak. Unfortunately most of the debt growth emanated from Washington. That growth was $557 billion, of at a 14.1% annualized rate. Of course, what the federal government is doing is the antithesis of what they should be doing. Will these borrowings and debt continue, of course they will.

In 13 quarters Treasury debt is up $100 trillion an increase of almost $4.9 trillion, or by 92%. In three years Treasury debt rose from 16.2% of non-financial debt to 26.7% and total federal debt has increased from 46% of GDP to 78% of GDP. In 2007 federal non-financial debt grew from 3.3%. In 2010 it was 113%. Year-on-year total compensation rose only 2.8% as real inflation grew 11.6%. During that period corporate earnings set records. For the most part those earnings were achieved via layoffs. From the second thru the third quarters household debt fell 1.2% from a minus 0.6% and mortgage debt fell 1.8%, as consumer credit rose 1.2%.

Funding especially foreign funds of US bank branches has been wild and the Fed has done its best to obscure what they are up too. It looks like these foreign bank balances grew about $2.6 trillion.

The result is that pressure was relieved in Europe and the US went sideways in spite of massive increases in money and credit. Fed issuance is in a bubble and it is only a question of when it pops. It is not surprising that the American public believes we are headed in the wrong direction, some 70%. Only 39% approve of the administration’s financial policies. The GOP frontrunner Gingrich, if he ran against Obama today would lose 50% to 41%. It shows you how dumb Republicans are. Nominating a crook who is a guaranteed loser.

As we pointed out earnings were the highest in four years. Layoffs were part of that, plus a lowering of loan reserves, bank lending and possible losses were virtually unchanged and the to-big-to-fail banks were able to borrow money at no cost, while the public pays up to 35% for funds.

European banks are struggling to raise capital under BIS dictates. In that process they are selling off their best assets. Normally they would sell the worst assets, but presently losses would worsen their balance sheets, so they are forced to sell best assets to bolster the balance sheet to meet the reserve figures demanded by the Bank for International Settlements the banker’s bank. These sales tend to negatively affect markets. The higher the leverage, the worse the effect.

Via the Patriot Act the US government has declared war on Iran by invoking sanctions. This is under the guise of Iran supposedly having nuclear weapons, which is a figment of colonial Washington’s imagination. The elitists in Washington want to isolate the Iranian banking system and as a result Iran is preparing to shut off 40% of the world’s oil by shutting the Straits of Hormuz. The reason added to these actions by Treasury Secretary Geithner is that Iran is a primary money launderer. We see Iran’s being cut off from western banking providential, considering the state of western banking today. The Fed and the IMF are again scurrying around trying to save Europe from itself, a place where few are capable of making decisions. We call that contagion and Iran could be spared that. The drones are being shot down over Iran and the US keeps sending them. Next it will be air combat where the loss of life and equipment will be high.

In Europe the past few weeks have been disastrous. Confidence continues to erode as the plunge protection team holds up markets and attacks gold and silver. Greece continues in a standoff until there are February elections. If there are no elections nothing will ensue in a big way. Greece refuses to reduce sovereign debt and take any more austerity cuts. What all these masters of the universe don’t understand, or want to understand, is that Greek debt, in fact almost all debt, is unrepayable. What all governments have done by raising massive amounts of debt has frozen the productive private sector out of the market. The exceptions are AAA rated companies, almost of which just happen to be Illuminist run. Government spending is generally non-productive.

As we have seen recently even the elitists Super Congress Enabling Committee could not come to a conclusion on cutting US government debt. It shows you even under controlled circumstances that the kept Congress will not at all commit themselves to any kind of austerity.

Europe is about austerity and debt. The big question is will the Bundesbank take the easy way out? Will they print their way out now that selling bonds is difficult? Of course either printing or bonds or money is an answer or solution to the problem. Worse yet every currency is fiat and loaded by nothing and they are all unconnected. They call that spreading the misery. Growth is falling into the minus category, as Germany shows a third month of falling manufacturing orders.

In response to the economic situation, the European Commissioner for internal markets says, it will crackdown on credit agencies. These agencies are now finally doing their jobs and the commission wants to shoot the messenger. All they want is for the raters to create greater transparency and to explain their ratings. They went so far as to propose that raters be liable for financially punitive action when mistakes occur. What the commission wants is no ratings at all, so that they can operate in darkness. It complains about an S&P monopoly and that European downgrades should stop. These demands reflect the socialist-one-world attitude. If we can’t have things our way they should not exist at all. We know the attitude and culture; we lived there.

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IF Issue: Wednesday Nov 30, 2011

Excerpts and links from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman - Sovereign Economist - November 23, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2LWjuX77CI&feature=email

Bob Chapman – Ralph Evans

WORLD FINANCIAL COLLAPSE - WWIII & Bankers Demise

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1i6mVTPgWg&feature=email

Interview 418 – Bob Chapman

http://www.corbettreport.com/interview-418-bob-chapman/

Bob Chapman - The Financial Survival 28 Nov 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPU0G0z1paw&feature=email

Dr. Deagle Show 111123 1/3 - BOB CHAPMAN

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqfIQmUJ1c8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0GzNM6o1Ck
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch-ELZ2z6VA

Bob Chapman - Radio Liberty 28 Nov 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-144GuRT1h8&feature=email

US MARKETS

           

Except for the MF Global scandal Europe still stands at the forefront of world debt problems. Up until now little has been accomplished toward solving these problems and the traditional Christmas season is upon us, which stretches from December 7th, to January 10th, a period in which very little will be accomplished.

It is reminiscent of last summer. The only thing that the elitists have accomplished is the placement of Bilderbergs as the head of the ECB and the appointments of two more as PM’s in Italy and Greece.

Over the last ten years we saw all debt grow, but in particular among the southern members of the euro zone. The imbalance was predictable, but the northern countries just ignored the problem. Those in the north blamed the difference on culture and work ethics. Thrown into the mix was government and banking profligacy and growing lack of competitiveness. All of that was true, but it did not alter the fact that great imbalances existed and still exist and that certainly contributed to the underlying non-competitiveness.

Financial mismanagement certainly had a profound effect in the six countries in serious trouble and you can also include France in the group. The problems were also compounded by the wild growth of indebtedness lorded over the banking community. The latter just loved one interest for all. The banks were particularly the blame in Ireland and Spain where unnecessary building went absolutely berserk. Through this period, Germany and the Netherlands, in particular, couldn’t lend money fast enough to those who shouldn’t have been borrowing it. This, as we reflect back, it was malinvestment, a misallocation of capital instituted by the banking community, which was leveraged about 70 to 1. We continue to ask what could they have been thinking of? The performance of the banks was at the very core and heart of what we see today.

Two to three years ago Germany reached the conclusion that this could not continue and they attempted to Germanize Greece and to instill discipline. That ended up being unsuccessful, due to the great cultural differences. That brought about the EFSF, which provided loans to those countries that were unacceptable to the bond market. This, of course, was just another effort in avoiding reality. The northern Euro Zone members want to continue to export to these countries, but they cannot do that and that is why they have no money. They are finding that collectivism doesn’t work. There is no such thing as collective responsibility. These new world order geniuses forget that when you have austerity GDP falls and you have a recession. In addition, it also brings about added inflation, which had and has the ECB very concerned, because their mandate is to keep inflation in check. This then has put the ECB at cross-purposes.

This points out why the ECB does not want to act as lender of last resort to governments. The six nations in trouble have been forced kicking and screaming to accept austerity government changes and to reveal the terrible condition that their banks are in. Greece, as an example, went into the stage one bailout and austerity, which forced revenues lower and the ability to pay interest lower as well. Wages were cut 40%, government wanted to take licensees from taxi drivers and turn their businesses over to a Germany consortium, which forced the largest demonstrations to date. We wrote more than two years ago that Greece should default, return to the Drachma and straighten their economy out. No one wanted to hear that and now the situation is much worse.

We have six countries on the ropes. Contagion has set in. Stress tests are a scam and meaningless. Dexia passed with flying colors and two weeks later went bankrupt.

Due to outright lying by bankers and politicians money is going to be much harder to raise in the future. If Germany’s auction was real last week, and if they could only raise half of what they wanted to raise, how can those in trouble believe they can raise any funds at over 7% on 10-year bonds?

The simple solution is to end the euro, a poorly thought out experiment; which its creators thought would become a one-world currency. If currencies are managed properly, central banks do not need to be a lender of last resort. All the lender does in creating money and credit out of thin air is inflate away excesses by the bank and fiscal policies. A cap of 3% annually in central bank monetary creation will bring only limited inflation and allow for growth.

A break up of the euro zone does not have to be disorderly. Every two months, over a one-year period, one of the six nations can be allowed to leave the euro in full default. The second year the remaining 11 members can decide whether they want to keep the group together, or return to their original currencies. This is essentially what 65% of German citizens want.