IF Issue: Saturday Dec 17, 2011

Excerpts and links from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman - The National Intel Report with John Stadtmiller 2011.12.13

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEOEEFTEABQ&feature=email

Bob Chapman with Kerry Lutz 12/14/11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHG06mj1ppI

Bob Chapman - Financial Survival - December 14, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnz9gDiTK5M&feature=email

Bob Chapman on Freedom Files with James Burns

http://freedomfiles.us/

http://youtu.be/waXBkss4xg0

FFw/JB Podcast (12/15/2011): Bob Chapman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waXBkss4xg0&feature=youtu.be

US MARKETS

           

The Fed’s third quarter audit data shows a total system debt of 355% and of GDP, in spite of so-called de-leveraging. It is down from the second quarter’s 375% of GDP, but up from 264% a dozen years ago. Financial sector borrowing fell almost 50% in the quarter but non-financial debt increased while financial debt fell – a push so to speak. Unfortunately most of the debt growth emanated from Washington. That growth was $557 billion, of at a 14.1% annualized rate. Of course, what the federal government is doing is the antithesis of what they should be doing. Will these borrowings and debt continue, of course they will.

In 13 quarters Treasury debt is up $100 trillion an increase of almost $4.9 trillion, or by 92%. In three years Treasury debt rose from 16.2% of non-financial debt to 26.7% and total federal debt has increased from 46% of GDP to 78% of GDP. In 2007 federal non-financial debt grew from 3.3%. In 2010 it was 113%. Year-on-year total compensation rose only 2.8% as real inflation grew 11.6%. During that period corporate earnings set records. For the most part those earnings were achieved via layoffs. From the second thru the third quarters household debt fell 1.2% from a minus 0.6% and mortgage debt fell 1.8%, as consumer credit rose 1.2%.

Funding especially foreign funds of US bank branches has been wild and the Fed has done its best to obscure what they are up too. It looks like these foreign bank balances grew about $2.6 trillion.

The result is that pressure was relieved in Europe and the US went sideways in spite of massive increases in money and credit. Fed issuance is in a bubble and it is only a question of when it pops. It is not surprising that the American public believes we are headed in the wrong direction, some 70%. Only 39% approve of the administration’s financial policies. The GOP frontrunner Gingrich, if he ran against Obama today would lose 50% to 41%. It shows you how dumb Republicans are. Nominating a crook who is a guaranteed loser.

As we pointed out earnings were the highest in four years. Layoffs were part of that, plus a lowering of loan reserves, bank lending and possible losses were virtually unchanged and the to-big-to-fail banks were able to borrow money at no cost, while the public pays up to 35% for funds.

European banks are struggling to raise capital under BIS dictates. In that process they are selling off their best assets. Normally they would sell the worst assets, but presently losses would worsen their balance sheets, so they are forced to sell best assets to bolster the balance sheet to meet the reserve figures demanded by the Bank for International Settlements the banker’s bank. These sales tend to negatively affect markets. The higher the leverage, the worse the effect.

Via the Patriot Act the US government has declared war on Iran by invoking sanctions. This is under the guise of Iran supposedly having nuclear weapons, which is a figment of colonial Washington’s imagination. The elitists in Washington want to isolate the Iranian banking system and as a result Iran is preparing to shut off 40% of the world’s oil by shutting the Straits of Hormuz. The reason added to these actions by Treasury Secretary Geithner is that Iran is a primary money launderer. We see Iran’s being cut off from western banking providential, considering the state of western banking today. The Fed and the IMF are again scurrying around trying to save Europe from itself, a place where few are capable of making decisions. We call that contagion and Iran could be spared that. The drones are being shot down over Iran and the US keeps sending them. Next it will be air combat where the loss of life and equipment will be high.

In Europe the past few weeks have been disastrous. Confidence continues to erode as the plunge protection team holds up markets and attacks gold and silver. Greece continues in a standoff until there are February elections. If there are no elections nothing will ensue in a big way. Greece refuses to reduce sovereign debt and take any more austerity cuts. What all these masters of the universe don’t understand, or want to understand, is that Greek debt, in fact almost all debt, is unrepayable. What all governments have done by raising massive amounts of debt has frozen the productive private sector out of the market. The exceptions are AAA rated companies, almost of which just happen to be Illuminist run. Government spending is generally non-productive.

As we have seen recently even the elitists Super Congress Enabling Committee could not come to a conclusion on cutting US government debt. It shows you even under controlled circumstances that the kept Congress will not at all commit themselves to any kind of austerity.

Europe is about austerity and debt. The big question is will the Bundesbank take the easy way out? Will they print their way out now that selling bonds is difficult? Of course either printing or bonds or money is an answer or solution to the problem. Worse yet every currency is fiat and loaded by nothing and they are all unconnected. They call that spreading the misery. Growth is falling into the minus category, as Germany shows a third month of falling manufacturing orders.

In response to the economic situation, the European Commissioner for internal markets says, it will crackdown on credit agencies. These agencies are now finally doing their jobs and the commission wants to shoot the messenger. All they want is for the raters to create greater transparency and to explain their ratings. They went so far as to propose that raters be liable for financially punitive action when mistakes occur. What the commission wants is no ratings at all, so that they can operate in darkness. It complains about an S&P monopoly and that European downgrades should stop. These demands reflect the socialist-one-world attitude. If we can’t have things our way they should not exist at all. We know the attitude and culture; we lived there.

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IF Issue: Saturday, Dec 10, 2011

Excerpts and links from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman - James Corbett Interview - Dec. 5, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghVE5RoYaL0

Interview 424 – Bob Chapman

http://www.corbettreport.com/interview-424-bob-chapman/

Bob Chapman - Radio Liberty - 05 Dec 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gB_GXPCQTK8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6hpE2kVHpM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0qM-WRF49s

Bob Chapman - RealNewsRadio - December 3,2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIHgRWzAUKA

Bob Chapman - The National Intel Report 2011.12.06

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WC1KblhJvFo&feature=email

FFw/JB Podcast (12/8/2011): Bob Chapman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IXFvTXjuG0&feature=youtu.be

US MARKETS

As we reach back into modern European history we see the unnatural amalgamation of 27-European countries, all of which are socially and culturally different. From our point of view the union was doomed from its inception. We lived for years in central Europe, spoke their languages and had a powerful outsider’s view of their cultures. Europe’s inhabitants generally were convinced that the union would prevent future wars and bring peace to Europe. Unfortunately, all they did was trade Perfidious Albion, Hitler and Mussolini for the Trilateral Commission, Bilderbergs and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. The same gang that financed WWII from both sides. It is important to understand the real history of Europe, not that fed to us in universities, where almost solely the victors write the books. As you know there are two sides to everything.

There are not only 6 sovereign nations that are insolvent, but because of the interconnectivity created by the EU and the euro zone the financial misery has spread to otherwise solvent nations. They bought the debt of 6 sovereigns and it was proper that they do so. For France, as a result, they may face a double downgrade in their debt ratings.

We continue to hear that the ECB purchased all the bad debt of the banks and sovereigns to clear the decks, but under present treaty the ECB is specifically prohibited from doing so. That is why US Treasury Secretary Geithner is in Europe this week. He is to show Europe the error of its ways, change the treaties and model the ECB after the US Fed. The players won’t solve any long-term problems, but it will give Europe and the ECB the leverage to work its way through today’s problems, and as a result create some fierce inflation. The later to them is the less of two evils. The players are now all well aware that existing debt to be neutralized is at least $6 trillion and if austerity is not followed the numbers will be higher. The European economies are now falling into recession and austerity could take Europe into depression. Remember, tax revenues will fall and impair the debtors’ ability to service their debt. It now becomes clear looking at the facts that the US and Europe all have similar problems, they are all broke, along with the major banks and they know full well money and credit creation will not solve their long-term problems. The game is being moved in this direction, because there is no other direction it can be moved into.

That is why European and US leaders are attempting to change the treaties to accommodate the money and credit creation potential of the ECB.

The issuance of new Eurobonds being created to restore long-term solvency is a non-starter, as opposed to changing the rules for the ECB. Both concepts just throw debt into the future, some 50 or 100 years away.

The concept being pushed as hard as the ECB becoming the Fed of Europe is the coordination of economic policies by a committee of 8 bureaucrats and 17 Secretaries of the Treasuries from the euro zone countries. These individuals would make all budgetary and fiscal choices for all 17 countries. In such a process each country would give up its sovereignty to a small group of bureaucrats devoted to the formation of World Government.

The alternative is to abandon the euro and the euro zone, which we believe is the real answer. Write off the bad debt and get on with life. Germany could be headed in this direction. We will know as we publish this weekend if there will be a new direction. The solutions offered are really those of the US and UK. The question is will the Europeans accept them? We do not know, but we do know that Germany and the Bundesbank will not accept any blame, after all those years of sacrifice to make everyone happy. Those days are gone forever. On the other hand is Germany trying to readopt the Deutschemark? We will have a better view after the weekend. Keep in mind 65% of Germans want out of the euro, out of further debt guarantees and many want out of the EU.

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IF Issue: Saturday November 26, 2011

Excerpts and links from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman - Radio Liberty 3rd Hour- 21 Nov 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLs0GFYT58Y&feature=email

Bob Chapman - Financial Survival - November 23, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3Zxvf5qUpY&feature=email

US MARKETS

            In Europe each time a new player is presented we find he is a Goldman Sachs’ alumnus. Recent entries are Mario Monti “appointed” PM of Italy, Lucas Papademas “appointed” PM of Greece and Mario Dragahi “appointed” President of the European Central Bank. The banks blatantly control governments and agencies presenting us with an oligarchy, which controls most of the nations on the planet. In America politicians are bought and paid for. In Europe there is a different mind set, a shared worldview of bureaucrats, technocrats, politicians and the elite bankers of world government and domination. What has happened in this process is that Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and other mega-banking has retained power for decades. They control all the players in the field, so the outcome is always in their favor. The bankers and others in turn are paid via billions of dollars in bonuses. Banks are now bank holding companies having become that to avoid failure as brokerage firms. That is the case in the US, UK and Europe.

One of our subscribers in Brussels sent us a copy of “A European Mechanism for Financial Stability.” The present danger is seen in sovereigns heavily in debt and the heard effect of hedge funds. They say they won’t allow speculators to govern their societies. If they are serious why don’t they ban them from their markets? A universal ban would be even better and they could throw in derivatives for good measure.

Europe still does not have a longer-term structural solution to their debt crisis and none is in the offering. Germany cannot sell its total tranche of bonds and Mrs. Merkel says that if Germany can only sell 65% of its bonds how can Eurobonds or bonds of the six insolvent nations sell theirs? The debt crisis is burrowing even deeper like a large worm undermining the entire continent. Worse yet, we just found out that the Bundesbank usually holds back bonds for market making operations, thus, they only sold about half of the issue. If the crisis continues to deepen Germany and the other euro zone nations will have to reexamine where they are headed. As we know all currencies and debt rates are increasing, which ties the banks of all the participants, including the solvent ones. Even with the German bunds, who is going to want to hold debt in a country that will have to guarantee one-half or more of the debt of other countries? At the same time the call goes out for strict supervision and enforcement of budget discipline. We have lived in these countries and that is not possible for any sustained period of time.

The Spanish election turned out as well as could be expected Calling for a vote on November 20th, the anniversary of Generalisimo’s death, turned out to be the kiss of death for Socialist PM Joe Luis Zapatero. There are too many people who liked Franco. The PP is a pro business party and already governs 11 of 17 of the country’s autonomous regions. If PP beats the Socialists in their stronghold in March, the PP will be in power for a number of years. Zapater’s legacy to the PP will have its work cut out for it with 22% unemployment and almost 7% yields to contend with. They will have to also try to restore the country’s AAA rating. Many voted for the lesser of two evils.

In France we have another case of government bailing out the banks and other euro zone members. These efforts could cost France its AAA rating. We’ll know in mid-January, but it does not look good.

Funding costs on a 10-year bond level are up and they look like they are going to stay there. Major countries are still paying close to 7%, which is the highest funding cost since the creation of the euro. The spread between French and German rates is about 2%, which is unheard of. The euro continues to be hammered vs. the dollar and the same is happening worldwide in stock markets. Most two-year paper has risen in yield over the past month. France is paying close to 4% versus .40% in Germany and in the US .28%. In Europe these bond markets could not function without the assistance of the ECB and the money and credit creation of sovereign governments, some banks are showing desperate signs. The biggest bank in Italy, Unibank, has to refinance $51 billion of bonds shortly. Their bond yields are now over 10%. Only the ECB can bail them out like the Fed bailed out banks in the US and Europe three years ago.

While this transpires 70% of Americans are unaware of the seriousness of what is taking place in Europe. Wait until 2012. Banks alone have to raise $660 billion of maturing debt, most 10-year paper is selling above 7-1/4%, which is a sign that they all need the help; Greece, Ireland and Portugal has already received. Remember, we are talking $6 trillion just to bail these countries out and to keep their economies going sideways. The solvent countries cannot come up with that kind of money without failing themselves. You have to ask why did the bankers let things go so far? They deliberately impeded the system, because they cannot be that stupid. Then there is the matter of capital flight. This year Greek banks have lost 20% of their deposits. We hope they bought gold and silver. We ask are Italian and Spanish deposits next? Over in Hungary Moody’s has cut their debt to non-investment grade. In the wake of that announcement France’s Sarkozy and Germany’s Merkel tell us that the ECB will act appropriately, whatever that means. These leaders do not know what to say or what to do. The situation is unsustainable, but we wouldn’t be surprised if this phase lasted into late January. Remember, Europe virtually closes down from December 7th until January 10th. This while the future of the European banking system is in dire trouble. While this transpires we wonder how many derivative failures there are and what their consequences could be? At last we heard from the US government, US bank exposure was $670 billion, mostly in credit default swaps. If the six European countries default on their debt, US banks cannot possibly stay solvent. The knack on contagion could take the US banking system down with it. In Europe there is no question that all European banks will have to be recapitalized by the countries in which they do business. In fact, it has already begun, just as it did in the US three years ago. That makes their currencies worth much less and gold and silver worth much more.

This is the greatest risk the EU has ever faced and as yet no one has any solutions. The euro and the entire 27-country union are at risk. This as we predicted has no solution. The weaker states have to be cut loose and the euro has to be phased out. Article 123 of the EU Treaty, prohibiting monetary financing or central bank funding of government, is illegal. That certainly is a stopper. That means the euro zone and the EU are trapped by their treaty and would have to change the treaty and, of course, the outcome would be massive inflation. If they stick to the treaty the euro will collapse. What it comes down to is that desperate violators do not care about the law. All they want is survival. On the other hand, Germans are unwilling to sacrifice their credibility or to abandon the legal path. Crisis or no crisis there is no reason to break the rules for those who have already broken them. Monetary inflation is the direct result of bailout and purging the system is the only solution for the long-term. We do not think Germany will abandon the rules and their principals. That means they are prepared to cut loose the six insolvents and hope the core euro nations can hold together. It is not only inflation, but credibility and trust as well.

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IF Issue: Saturday August 13, 2011

Excerpts from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman - Financial Survival - August 12, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yIfw-IR29A&feature=email

Bob Chapman - Radio Liberty - 08 Aug 2011 – Dr. Stan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVRHUbbp90U&feature=email

Bob Chapman - Financial Survival - August 10, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csqRf0iNfwc&feature=email

Bob with Kerry Lutz

http://tinyurl.com/Bob-Chapman-8-11-11

Episode 103: Live with Bob Chapman

By derekdreamer1

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/derekdreamer1/2011/08/12/episode-106-live-with-bob-chapman

US MARKETS

Markets have certainly fallen quickly. It was only on 12,721 on July 21 and now we are looking at a low close of 11.269 after a 500-point PPT arrangement. There is no question investors didn’t like the bill encompassing debt extension, nor the perceived cuts to be made. That was followed by a long awaited fall-in the debt rating of the US by the S&P. At the same time the financial and economic conditions in Europe worsen with Italy officially joining the ranks of near insolvency. These events were accompanied by calls for the president to bypass the Constitution or to use the 14th Amendment to bring about the debt extension. Under a façade of political wrangling as a cover the real impetus for the standoff became obvious. The whole exercise was not only about debt extension that could have been settled in 15 minutes, but about cutting individually paid for plans, such as Social Security and Medicare, which will eventually lead to a corporatist fascist dictatorship. This super-Congress is very reminiscent of the 13th century “Star Chamber”, the Soviet Politburo, or Adolph Hitler’s 1933 “Enabling Act.”

All and all the credit worthiness of the US government has been changed for sometime to come. Confidence no longer reigns regarding America’s fiscal condition. The US government, American citizens and corporate Americans have grown over the last 20 years not by increased production, but by the creation of money and credit and the borrowing and use of financial expediency. This condition was aided over the past few years by very low interest rates. The only exception being credit card lending by shylock banks. Whether Wall Street and banking realize it or not the transnational conglomerates with tax free incentives have all but destroyed America’s industrial base, and there can be no way back economically until that condition changes. That change can come about with the re-imposition of trade barriers on goods and services that served America so well for more than 200 years. If you look at the situation objectively you will see none of this happened by chance, it was planned this way.

There is little doubt that QE and stimulus 2 have been busts. They may have carried the economy this past year, but 1.3% growth is feeble when compared to the $1.8 trillion spent that we know about. Shipping rates for container ships are off about 10% during a peak time for usage. This leaves only one conclusion and that is trade is slowing down. Europe and Asia are seeing the same situation develop. These shipping rates reflected future business and coming on the heals of this GDP growth rates have fallen from 3.1% since December to 0.4% in March and the growth rate is still falling.

In Asia we have seen China and India increase interest rates a number of times, but like many other Asian countries they have far more inflation than they want. Some inflation is internally generated, but rates have been increased some 10 times to offset the inflation being caused by the monetizing of US dollars received from their exports. That has caused real inflation of more than 15%. The same is true throughout Asia to a somewhat lesser degree.

Europe is still mired in its own waste. They are frozen in the headlights. If they let the six problem countries leave the euro and go bankrupt their dream of a permanently united Europe will be over. Yet, the solvent participants now realize the cost of bailout collectively will be $4 to $6 trillion and that will render all the players insolvent. Like the Asians, Europe is paying an inflationary price for doing business with the US and England. Plus, they have been recipients of trillions of dollars from the US, which they haven’t paid back, to stay afloat.  Germany and its citizens have vented their anger at the polls that they want out of this euro mess and the EU. They are tired of picking up all the bills.

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IF Issue: Saturday August 6, 2011

Excerpts from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman: Debt Ceiling will=Political Coup d' etat by Global Banking Elite 2/2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC5goZPcbd8&feature=email

Bob Chapman - Radio Liberty - 1st Aug 2011- 3rd hour [FULL]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuTXs6zFZvc&feature=email

Bob Chapman - The Financial Survival 03 August 2011 – Melody Cedarstrom 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8H0eVjGCqs8

Ralph Evans: Bob Chapman - The Sovereign Economist - 03 Aug 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HsqR83YYYs&feature=email

Bob Chapman - Sovereign Economist - August 3, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1qYNlw-YEc&feature=email

Bob Chapman - Freedom Files - August 4, 2011 –JAMES BURNS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJSKcK8LbAk&feature=email

YOU.S.Desk (Press TV)

http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/192331.html

Congress bought and paid for by lobbies

http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/192217.html

US MARKETS

The entire concept of keeping the economy functioning is based upon US dollar debasement via the creation of excess money and credit, which is accompanied by departments of government and Wall Street. Once in the past 11 years in particular we have seen lies, fraud, bogus statistics and Mickey Mouse bookkeeping. For good measure the powers behind government have thrown in the gutting of America’s industrial base by outsourcing and offshoring. As an extra temporary measure the Fed has bailed out the financial sectors in the US and Europe and continues to bail out the US Treasury. Who cares about currency debasement because it’s a cost of doing business.  

We just witnessed another piece of legislation to destroy Social Security, Medicare and to usurp the US Constitution’s power to govern America via a “star chamber” group of 12 bought and paid for political operatives. Their style of government is very reminiscent of Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany.

Currency debasement goes on relentlessly worldwide and now the Fed is hinting that a QE 3 may be needed. We expected those trial balloons to appear on or about August 15th to be followed during the first two weeks of September of an announcement and beginning of QE 3. We felt the $300 billion they could roll over from existing Treasuries would be exhausted around September 1st. We expect during August the Fed will make a major effort to sell CDOs and MBSs, better known as toxic waste to raise more capital. The question is how much will be lost in these latter transactions, that the American people will be responsible for? Again taxpayers pay for bank losses being laundered by the Fed, which a number of the banks involved own. These actions further demean the value of the dollar, cause worse inflation and force gold and silver related assets higher.

The desperate economic and financial positions of Americans worsen as a result of these actions. Despair reigns as fellow Americans lose jobs, vehicles and homes only to move in with relatives or descend to living under a bridge.

Inflation is now affecting corporate profits that had been robust via laying off employees that make up 70% of their cost structure and installing new labor saving machinery, so that they can lay off more workers. This is accomplished via administration tax breaks.

Retirement savings are being wiped out in this process as many reach a stage of desperation. Government is so concerned at this depletion of assets that a bill has been introduced into the Senate to limit withdrawals and the number of withdrawals. The dirty little secret is the government wants that $6 trillion for itself, for which it will issue, guaranteed annuities. Mind you the US government is broke. Another Ponzi scheme to pay this annuity with your own funds. Again, get out of your IRA’S, your 401K’S and retirement funds and if you can’t, borrow against them, and buy gold and silver coins, bullion and shares. Gold owes no one anything and for 6,000 years has been the only real money. If present actions by the Fed continue in 2013-2015, we will have hyperinflation and gold and silver will soar as the dollar and other fiat currencies lose value in a big way versus these two precious metals. For the last 11 years, versus nine major currencies, on average each year, have lost more than 20% annually versus gold and silver. What more proof do you need that a long-term trend is in tact and that trend is your friend? We are headed for a modern Weimar collapse or perhaps a Zimbabweization of the American and many other economies. All currencies and countries will be affected in varying degrees and in the end there will only be gold and silver that represents value. If you do not want to starve or you want to keep your wealth together the only safe place to be is in gold and silver related assets.