Showing posts with label Silver Bars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Silver Bars. Show all posts

Saturday, January 21, 2012

International Forecaster: Jan 21, 2012

US MARKETS
           
If the entire financial system does not come down upon our heads and if we do not have another war, global growth is going nowhere in the year’s ahead. We had a mini-recovery, but it cost $1.8 trillion. We had a second recovery and that cost $1.5 trillion. We are entering a third of what is becoming yearly recoveries that will probably cost $1.3 trillion. In other worlds without these massive injections of money and credit we would probably be in a deflationary depression.
As a result of overspending and poor financial choices state, county and local governments continue layoffs, increase taxes, cut services and attempt to pay back unemployment loans from the Federal government by creating more debt, by floating additional bond issues. The people who run these governments just do not get it. They expect the next bull market is just around the corner and it isn’t. In 2014-2015 we can expect a housing inventory at banks of 9.8 million homes, all for sale. That guarantees no housing recovery for years to come.
The massive exodus of good paying jobs, one million a year, due to free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing and the loss of 450,000 manufactures will soon end, as a number of countries debate trade barriers. Such protectionism will initially cut back on world demand and the expansion of world debt. Austerity is already a by ward and means restrained spending as well. Governments will become more onerous with additional regulation and taxes, because they have no intention of really cutting spending. We have been waiting for more than three years for debt reduction and saving and it has not as yet really materialized on an ongoing basis. We ask, are American consumers capable of reducing debt and savings? If they do will personal consumption of GDP fall from 70% to lower levels? The answer is of course it will.
Thus far Americans cannot or will not in any meaningful way reduce spending and we see that mode continuing with an absence of savings. In this regard the Europeans are cutting back spending. China’s export growth has fallen to a 2-1/2 year low and Europe is China’s largest customer.
Over and over again we see other professionals still recommending US Treasuries yielding anywhere from zero to 1.87%, while official inflation is 3.8% and real inflation is 11.6%. These buyers of Treasuries have to have some fierce pressure put on them to purchase such investments; some are predicting a 2-1/2%, 30-year bond and a 1-1/2% 10-year note. Those gains are fine, but they nowhere offset the inflationary risk. For 25 years bonds have outperformed stocks, but few money managers talk about the outsized returns in gold and silver related assets. That isn’t acceptable and probably never will be. Professionals going the income route may be able to return 5% or even 7%, but that is not sufficient in having to deal with inflation and the volatility of the market. Producing gold and silver mines are selling at 15 times earnings when they could sell substantially higher based on P/E and gold and silver prices. You are looking at very easy 50% increases. Just recently we recommended Pretium (PVG) at $6.00 and it traded up over $16.00 this week.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

IF Issue: Saturday, Dec 10, 2011

Excerpts and links from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman - James Corbett Interview - Dec. 5, 2011


Bob Chapman - Radio Liberty - 05 Dec 2011
Bob Chapman - RealNewsRadio - December 3,2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIHgRWzAUKA

Bob Chapman - The National Intel Report 2011.12.06

FFw/JB Podcast (12/8/2011): Bob Chapman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IXFvTXjuG0&feature=youtu.be


US MARKETS

As we reach back into modern European history we see the unnatural amalgamation of 27-European countries, all of which are socially and culturally different. From our point of view the union was doomed from its inception. We lived for years in central Europe, spoke their languages and had a powerful outsider’s view of their cultures. Europe’s inhabitants generally were convinced that the union would prevent future wars and bring peace to Europe. Unfortunately, all they did was trade Perfidious Albion, Hitler and Mussolini for the Trilateral Commission, Bilderbergs and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. The same gang that financed WWII from both sides. It is important to understand the real history of Europe, not that fed to us in universities, where almost solely the victors write the books. As you know there are two sides to everything.
There are not only 6 sovereign nations that are insolvent, but because of the interconnectivity created by the EU and the euro zone the financial misery has spread to otherwise solvent nations. They bought the debt of 6 sovereigns and it was proper that they do so. For France, as a result, they may face a double downgrade in their debt ratings.
We continue to hear that the ECB purchased all the bad debt of the banks and sovereigns to clear the decks, but under present treaty the ECB is specifically prohibited from doing so. That is why US Treasury Secretary Geithner is in Europe this week. He is to show Europe the error of its ways, change the treaties and model the ECB after the US Fed. The players won’t solve any long-term problems, but it will give Europe and the ECB the leverage to work its way through today’s problems, and as a result create some fierce inflation. The later to them is the less of two evils. The players are now all well aware that existing debt to be neutralized is at least $6 trillion and if austerity is not followed the numbers will be higher. The European economies are now falling into recession and austerity could take Europe into depression. Remember, tax revenues will fall and impair the debtors’ ability to service their debt. It now becomes clear looking at the facts that the US and Europe all have similar problems, they are all broke, along with the major banks and they know full well money and credit creation will not solve their long-term problems. The game is being moved in this direction, because there is no other direction it can be moved into.
That is why European and US leaders are attempting to change the treaties to accommodate the money and credit creation potential of the ECB.
The issuance of new Eurobonds being created to restore long-term solvency is a non-starter, as opposed to changing the rules for the ECB. Both concepts just throw debt into the future, some 50 or 100 years away.
The concept being pushed as hard as the ECB becoming the Fed of Europe is the coordination of economic policies by a committee of 8 bureaucrats and 17 Secretaries of the Treasuries from the euro zone countries. These individuals would make all budgetary and fiscal choices for all 17 countries. In such a process each country would give up its sovereignty to a small group of bureaucrats devoted to the formation of World Government.
The alternative is to abandon the euro and the euro zone, which we believe is the real answer. Write off the bad debt and get on with life. Germany could be headed in this direction. We will know as we publish this weekend if there will be a new direction. The solutions offered are really those of the US and UK. The question is will the Europeans accept them? We do not know, but we do know that Germany and the Bundesbank will not accept any blame, after all those years of sacrifice to make everyone happy. Those days are gone forever. On the other hand is Germany trying to readopt the Deutschemark? We will have a better view after the weekend. Keep in mind 65% of Germans want out of the euro, out of further debt guarantees and many want out of the EU.
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Thursday, November 24, 2011

IF Issue: Wednesday November 23, 2011

Excerpts and links from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman on the MF Global scandal

Bob Chapman - The Financial Survival 18 Nov 2011


Bob Chapman joins Wide Awake Radio 11-21-11

Bob Chapman - The Financial Survival 21 Nov 2011

Bob Chapman - The Money & Wealth Show. - 11 Nov 2011


US MARKETS

We continue to write about Europe, because we have too. At the moment and for at least the next several months, it will be the lynchpin and the catalyst that could bring about a financial chain reaction worldwide. In turn Europe poses the biggest risk to the US economy. European direction has changed over the past few weeks to cut loose the six problem nations and any others who cannot stand on their own and reform a core euro zone. Presently Europe is nowhere close to ending its sovereign debt crisis. Germany does not want to use the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort. As riots erupt on the streets of Greece, talks are underway to structure 50% debt write-off that was the heart of the deal structured a month ago. In the meantime lending costs, already astronomical in Greece are relentlessly moving higher in Italy and Spain. The ECB has been active in the bond market as a buyer, but only in a limited way. The French, British and US want the ECB to act like the Federal Reserve overwhelming the market, and monetizing to solve the problems of the moment. The Germans do not want to deal with the inevitable inflation that follows. The extension of the problem, the hallmark of US, UK and French monetary policy obviously doesn’t solve the problem, but eventually compounds it by creating more debt and inflation. This policy has proven over and over again to be a failure in the longer term.
Confusion still reigns in Europe, and as a result the euro has lost 3%. In fact, climbing interest rates have many panicked. Interest rates on the 2-year Italian bills rose 150 bps last week, or ½%, as CDS, Credit Default Swaps, jumped 24%. Yields on Spanish, French and Belgian bonds had the highest divergence in euro history versus the bund this past week as well. As we have pointed out over and over that there is only one safe haven and that is gold and silver related assets. We ask how can the US dollar be perceived as a safe haven as its debt grows exponentially and its credit rating is approaching another downgrading? There has been only one safe haven for 6,000 years and that is gold and if the US government thinks they are going to change that they are mistaken. The money managers and hedge funds continue to chase the same failing currencies and refuses to buy gold, which appreciated more than 20% annually along with silver for the past 12 years. What are these genius money managers thinking about? They are so cowed by the establishment and propaganda they do not dare deviate. That in the face of historically low yields, which when matched against inflation is dreadful. Doesn’t anyone think outside the box?
In America Operation Twist, which has seemed to have faded from memory already has been a failure. How do you solve a debt crisis with more debt? Something the Europeans should take note of. But, they won’t, because that is today’s accepted poison. That in spite of its failure in the past. The end goal of Twist was lower mortgage rates, which really hasn’t happened. Who cares though? There are six million foreclosed homes in sale inventory and that will increase to 8 to 11 million over the next four years. We’d call this an exercise in futility.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

IF Issue: Saturday November 19, 2011

Excerpts and links from the latest issue:

Dr. Deagle Show 111109 1/3 to 3/3 - BOB CHAPMAN - COMING ECONOMIC STORM

Bob Chapman: Surviving The Banker Sociopaths 1/2

Bob Chapman - The National Intel Report with John Stadtmiller -15 Nov 2011

Silver Update 11/16/11 - Stupor Committee

FFw/JB Podcast (11/17/2011): Bob Chapman


US MARKETS

            German Chancellor Merkel keeps moving the field of play away from the European Central Bank, and to the people of the euro zone. That is so she can get legislation to remove the sovereignty of EU members. The pitch is, if the new EU is to work all fiscal decisions that will have to be determined in unison by bureaucratic technocrats, all of whom want world government. This way Germany can lead European countries in locked goose step to one-world nirvanas. Incidentally, Britain’s PM David Cameron is going in the exact opposite direction. He sees an opportunity to allow powers to ebb back to national status from Brussels. What Mrs. Merkel is saying is that existing treaties and the ECB does not have a possibility of solving the euro problem.
            In the background we find German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble is a driving force behind the plans to run towards EU and fiscal and monetary union. This shows you how deliberately out of touch German politicians are and they seem to care less. They say this is the best way to ensure the EU’s survival, not the euro, the EU. Their plan will eventually destroy any possible solution in the quest to control European nations. As the Dir Spiegel put it so aptly, entering into voluntary euthanasia. What Merkel is up to here is massive changes in the German Constitution and the remaining Constitutions of Europe. Germany has one of the best Constitutions in the world, so why change it to abet world government? Herr Schauble and his Illuminist think tank behind the scenes is the one, which is really making all the decisions. An eminence guise, if you may. We wonder if Herr Schäuble has visions of himself as dictator of the EU? Perhaps these are his elitist orders. His quest along with Merkel’s is increase guarantees for the new ESM, which a majority of his own party rejects. Then again he doesn’t let democracy get in his way. Schäuble is the Illuminist’s main man in Germany and one to be watched closely. We knew Greece had to default two years ago, but so did Herr Schäuble and he told that to Mrs. Merkel.
            Herr Schäuble finding he could not raise enough funds for the EFSF he then recommended derivatives to extend the funds line from $518 billion, nearly half of which was donated by Germany, to $1.4 trillion. This concept at least for now ha fallen into disfavor.
            Supposedly, the only way the euro and the European Union can be saved is by transferring sovereign rights to the EU and amending Germany’s Constitution. As the situation deteriorates, which it is, they expect to use this opportunity to make the changes they want. They expect to turn the next crisis into an opportunity. The first shot would be a German natural referendum on Constitutional changes. The far more conservative Bavarian sister party certainly won’t go along with these ideas and changes. The entire exercise is a loser but Schäuble and the banks will push as hard as possible. In France Mr. Sarkozy is for the plan, but France and its banks are broke and the French government cannot even save them.
            If one is to present another Hitlerian concept one must understand cultural social issues stretching back thousands of years and the anthropology that makes them work. Yackey would have called what they are doing cultural distortion. These people. Schauble and Merkel are not idiots. They are the water carriers for world government. They are blinded by their goals and desires. As we have pointed out in earlier issues the six nations and any others in financial trouble will be cut loose to save the banking systems in the other 11 countries, although that may not be possible. They are willing to accept those odds, if for no other reason that they have known for some time that they cannot save the six. The financial sectors have to be saved at all costs, because this is the seat of elitist power. Saving the people and the economies isn’t even on their agenda. This is happening in the UK and US as well. This is what Occupy is protesting about. A defeat in Germany of these grandiose ideas will go a long way to preserving Democracy in Europe. We see the same forces doing the same thing in the UK and US and hopefully we’ll be seeing their defeat as well.
            There is turmoil among the European ranks, as to weather the ECB should continue to buy Italian and Spanish bonds. The German’s say no, because they fear inflation, which is understandable. They are fearful as well that the ECB could loose its independence. On the other hand British PM David Cameron says that the ECB should step in and save the day. His comment sounds like it came straight from the Fed.
            As we mentioned previously what Germany and France are trying to do is cut loose the financial failures from the euro, consolidate the remaining euro zone and via the ESM remove part of the sovereignty from this probable group of eight by allowing the ESM to make the fiscal domestic decisions of the group. They also want to revise the EU’s Lisbon Treaty that would now include fiscal union. France and Britain want the ECB to guarantee the EFSF. Germany does not. Germany is in a powerful position and has begun to use that power. Mrs. Merkel told Mr. Cameron that if he didn’t agree they’d move on without him. If England ever wanted to leave the EU, this would be the time to do so.
            You cannot maintain democratic control of the group with it operating at two speeds. In the 1950s you had this between the EEC and EFTA. That is why they were merged into the EU. If you have one speed it is easier and that is why Germany wants to dump the weak sisters.
            Here Europe is in a panic crisis and the politicians are jockeying for power. England and Germany want more export breaks, apparently unaware that if present deterioration continues they may not have a euro zone or a EU.
            As Italy and Greece grab the headlines our subscribers right from Slovenia, that their banking system may collapse. There are lots of problems, but the worst we hear is the government’s incompetence.
            Unemployment unofficially is about 15% the housing market is dead, prices are falling and most construction companies have shut down. Late payments by these companies to banks are about 25%. In the residential sector about 15% of loans are behind on payments. As with Greece and Italy, Slovenian bonds are now yielding more than 7% - a clear sign that they are probably on the edge of bankruptcy. As you can see there are many problems within the EU that few talk about, that just adds to the European turmoil.
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Monday, September 19, 2011

IF Issue: Saturday Sept 17, 2011

Excerpts from the latest issue:
Brent Johnson – Bob Chapman

Bob Chapman - The Financial Survival 14 Sept 2011

Bob Chapman - Kerry Lutz - September 14, 2011

Bob Chapman - Ringside Politics - September 14, 2011

BOB CHAPMAN - 5TH SEPT 2011 - GONOB RADIO (1/6)

9/12/11 - GONOB Radio Interviews Bob Chapman Part 1/6

Bob Chapman - FREEDOMIZER RADIO - September 13, 2011

Bob Chapman - Ringside Politics - September 14, 2011

Bob Chapman - Kerry Lutz - September 14, 2011


US MARKETS

We have warned subscribers and listeners and those on the Internet over and over again that government was going to come after your private retirement funds including 401K’s and IRA’s that hold $6.6 trillion in investments.
This past week in a grand deficit cutting bargain the Senate Finance Committee explored “Tax Reform Options Promoting Retirement Security.” The excuse is to make 401K plans more efficient; to keep Social Security afloat and to switch funds from these retirement plans to be used elsewhere by government. It is called a looting procedure. The idea is to replace the 401K with a tax break that would allow government to offer bigger benefits to low earners and changes in withdrawal choices at retirement. It would include a change in the way Social Security benefits are calculated to reduce eventual payout and subsidize the poor via a government guaranteed annuity. There would also be an increase in the retirement age. This approach is similar to something you would find in the communist manifesto. Take from the bigger producers to subsidize the lesser producers. Each according to his ability and each according to his means.
We are told Social Security will be out of funds in 2036, which is untrue and the Congress does not mention that the trust fund has been looted since June of 1935. All that is left are worthless bonds. Those that read the Act will find that if government does not have the funds for Social Security they must sell bonds to fund any shortfalls. This fact is, of course, ignored by the Congress and the person who calls himself president. They are more interested in loophole-closing rate-lowering tax reform, which are code words to cut current Social Security income and transfer those funds to other pet socialist projects, that government deems more important. The Congress could care less that you paid taxes for a lifetime for this payout, and it is not a benefit, because you paid for it, and have your benefits shifted to those on lower income brackets or to pet socialist projects. What upsets the socialist and fascists in government is that the tax break for defined contribution retirement plans is that it will cost the Treasury $212.2 billion between 2010 and 2014. What really galls them is that 80% of the payout goes to the top 20% of earners and they want those funds to be redistributed to the less fortunate, to offset debt or to be applied in other socialized areas. One of the proposals is to roll back the current $16,500 annual 401K tax deferred contribution to a level of $10,500. If this is followed government would capture $450 billion in additional tax revenue, and low-income workers would not be affected. We suggest congress change the law and tax the $2.2 trillion parked offshore in tax havens at 35% and bring in revenue of $800 billion or more and to keep that revenue stream going. That means only $1 trillion would have to be cut from military spending and we’d have a balanced budget. That would be just too simple and it might upset the transnational conglomerates and the military industrial complex.
Needless to say, Americans would stop saving conventionally and purchase gold and silver related assets that have appreciated more than 20% annually for the past 11-1/2 years. These changes would render 401Ks and IRAs redundant. The incentive would be gone and all those funds might not be available to the government for redistribution to low-income citizens.
The bottom line is the government wants your retirement and more taxes. Private annuities could face insurance company collapse if the Dow went to 3 or 4,000 and of course the government is insolvent. For current retirees there has been no COLA increase as inflation has ranged from 5% to 11.2% and by the looks of it the CPI will be rigged lower again, so there never will be an adjustment in payout. The latest is a chained CPI, which would further lower benefits.

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Saturday, August 6, 2011

IF Issue: Saturday August 6, 2011

Excerpts from the latest issue:

Bob Chapman: Debt Ceiling will=Political Coup d' etat by Global Banking Elite 2/2

Bob Chapman - Radio Liberty - 1st Aug 2011- 3rd hour [FULL]

Bob Chapman - The Financial Survival 03 August 2011 – Melody Cedarstrom 

Ralph Evans: Bob Chapman - The Sovereign Economist - 03 Aug 2011

Bob Chapman - Sovereign Economist - August 3, 2011

Bob Chapman - Freedom Files - August 4, 2011 –JAMES BURNS

YOU.S.Desk (Press TV)

Congress bought and paid for by lobbies

US MARKETS

The entire concept of keeping the economy functioning is based upon US dollar debasement via the creation of excess money and credit, which is accompanied by departments of government and Wall Street. Once in the past 11 years in particular we have seen lies, fraud, bogus statistics and Mickey Mouse bookkeeping. For good measure the powers behind government have thrown in the gutting of America’s industrial base by outsourcing and offshoring. As an extra temporary measure the Fed has bailed out the financial sectors in the US and Europe and continues to bail out the US Treasury. Who cares about currency debasement because it’s a cost of doing business.  
We just witnessed another piece of legislation to destroy Social Security, Medicare and to usurp the US Constitution’s power to govern America via a “star chamber” group of 12 bought and paid for political operatives. Their style of government is very reminiscent of Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany.
Currency debasement goes on relentlessly worldwide and now the Fed is hinting that a QE 3 may be needed. We expected those trial balloons to appear on or about August 15th to be followed during the first two weeks of September of an announcement and beginning of QE 3. We felt the $300 billion they could roll over from existing Treasuries would be exhausted around September 1st. We expect during August the Fed will make a major effort to sell CDOs and MBSs, better known as toxic waste to raise more capital. The question is how much will be lost in these latter transactions, that the American people will be responsible for? Again taxpayers pay for bank losses being laundered by the Fed, which a number of the banks involved own. These actions further demean the value of the dollar, cause worse inflation and force gold and silver related assets higher.
The desperate economic and financial positions of Americans worsen as a result of these actions. Despair reigns as fellow Americans lose jobs, vehicles and homes only to move in with relatives or descend to living under a bridge.
Inflation is now affecting corporate profits that had been robust via laying off employees that make up 70% of their cost structure and installing new labor saving machinery, so that they can lay off more workers. This is accomplished via administration tax breaks.
Retirement savings are being wiped out in this process as many reach a stage of desperation. Government is so concerned at this depletion of assets that a bill has been introduced into the Senate to limit withdrawals and the number of withdrawals. The dirty little secret is the government wants that $6 trillion for itself, for which it will issue, guaranteed annuities. Mind you the US government is broke. Another Ponzi scheme to pay this annuity with your own funds. Again, get out of your IRA’S, your 401K’S and retirement funds and if you can’t, borrow against them, and buy gold and silver coins, bullion and shares. Gold owes no one anything and for 6,000 years has been the only real money. If present actions by the Fed continue in 2013-2015, we will have hyperinflation and gold and silver will soar as the dollar and other fiat currencies lose value in a big way versus these two precious metals. For the last 11 years, versus nine major currencies, on average each year, have lost more than 20% annually versus gold and silver. What more proof do you need that a long-term trend is in tact and that trend is your friend? We are headed for a modern Weimar collapse or perhaps a Zimbabweization of the American and many other economies. All currencies and countries will be affected in varying degrees and in the end there will only be gold and silver that represents value. If you do not want to starve or you want to keep your wealth together the only safe place to be is in gold and silver related assets.